A simple election simulation model for the 2022 midterms.

Overview

2022 Midterm Simulation Model

Background and disclaimer

This project consists of a very basic election simulation model written in python.

I'm an amateur data analyst, amateur political scientist, and amateur computer scientist and I have absolutely no expertise whatsoever, so don't bet all your money on my model.

Current predictions (updated 10/30)

House of Representatives

Republicans win 75 in 100.

Median outcome: 208D—227R

Senate

Republicans win 60 in 100.

Median outcome: 49D—51R

Methodology

Elections

Simulates each of 435 seats in the House and each of 35 Class III seats in the Senate.

districtPVI + (baseNEnv ± hAdj ± eAdj ± errorAdj) ± incumbencyAdv + swingAdj = election result

The district PVI (districtPVI) is sourced from the Cook Political Report.

In the Senate, individual race polls are also taken into account.

The base national environment (baseNEnv) is from FiveThirtyEight's generic ballot polling average. A fourth-order polynomial line of best fit with a high Pearson correlation coefficient (r2=0.861) is used to extrapolate the national environment on Election Day.

The historical adjustment (hAdj) is based on inaccuracies from 2018 polling compared to the final results.

The enthusiasm adjustment (eAdj) is equivalent to a randomly selected number in a range between half of the margin in each party's best voter enthusiasm poll during the previous five months.

The error adjustment (errorAdj) assumes that the base national environment could vary by up to 50% in either direction.

The incumbency advantage (incumbencyAdv) is based on 2018 data from hundreds of races.

The swing adjustment (swingAdj) assumes that any given election could swing up to 5 points in either direction. (In Senate races, where race polls are taken into account, it assumes a 1.27-point bias in favor of Republicans.)

Simulation

Results are simulated 100,000 times and the averages are used.

Changelog

Saturday, September 24, 2022: Model launched with initial simulations

Sunday, September 25, 2022: Incorporated swingAdj in House races

Monday, September 26, 2022: Website updated to provide more information

Wednesday, September 28, 2022: Added capability to simulate individual races

Thursday, September 29, 2022: Slightly moved swing polling error adjustment to be R+1.27 instead of R+1.1

Friday, October 7, 2022: Updated model with October data as Election Day approaches in a month (House 64R → 59D, Senate 78D → 87D)


2022 Midterm Elections Model © 2022 by Isaac Barsoum is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

You might also like...

PyTorch implementations of Learning Mesh-based Simulation With Graph Networks

PyTorch implementations of Learning Mesh-based Simulation With Graph Networks

Learning Mesh-Based Simulation with Graph Networks This repository contains PyTorch implementations of meshgraphnets for flow around circular cylinder

Nov 23, 2022

Blog on Django with custom "life simulation" function

Блог на джанго с симуляцией жизни Блог реализованный на джанго. Установка pip install -r requirements.txt Запуск перейти в директорию приложения акти

Jun 13, 2022

Numerical simulation of snow growing by solving partial-differential-equations (PDEs)

Numerical simulation of snow growing by solving partial-differential-equations (PDEs)

Numerical simulation of snow growing by solving partial-differential-equations (PDEs). Coupling phase field (PF) and temperature field to simulate the snow growth. Fast parallel computing of PDE by taichi.

May 19, 2022

⛓ Enimga machine simulation

⛓ Enimga machine simulation

ENIGMA MACHINE WHAT IS ENIGMA MACHINE ? An Enigma machine is a famous encryption machine used by the Germans during WWII to transmit coded messages. A

Oct 10, 2022

Estimating π using Monte Calro Simulation

Estimating π using Monte Calro Simulation Using pseudorandom points pseudorandom.mp4 Using quasirandom points (Sobol sequence) quasirandom.mp4 Converg

Sep 24, 2022

Simulation of Autonomous search and rescue operation in a fire outbreak environment using Deep Reinforcement learning. (Project under development 💻)

Simulation of Autonomous search and rescue operation in a fire outbreak environment using Deep Reinforcement learning. (Project under development 💻)

Autonomous Search and Rescue Agent using Deep Reinforcement Learning Domain: Artificial Intelligence Problem Statement: We are living in a world full

Nov 12, 2022

Environmental Measurements: Storage, Simulation, Visualization and Tools

 Environmental Measurements: Storage, Simulation, Visualization and Tools

This repository contains ROS packages for storing environmental measurements, including simulation of sources, visualization and tools. Measurement interpolation and computation of Region of Interest is also supported.

May 20, 2022

Data-driven simulation for training and evaluating full-scale autonomous vehicles.

Data-driven simulation for training and evaluating full-scale autonomous vehicles.

VISTA Driving Simulator VISTA is a data-driven simulation engine for autonomous driving perception and control. The VISTA API provides an interface fo

Nov 18, 2022

An AnyLogic simulation allowing users to visually estimate the risk of cyber attacks as well as the cost and efficacy of controls.

cyberattack-simulation An AnyLogic simulation model allowing users to quantitatively estimate the risk of cyber attacks to their organization, as well

Jun 17, 2022
Owner
Isaac Barsoum
Front-end developer // freelancer // IB enthusiast // political junkie // aspiring journalist
Isaac Barsoum
[ICRA 2022] CaTGrasp: Learning Category-Level Task-Relevant Grasping in Clutter from Simulation

This is the official implementation of our paper: Bowen Wen, Wenzhao Lian, Kostas Bekris, and Stefan Schaal. "CaTGrasp: Learning Category-Level Task-R

Bowen Wen 191 Nov 22, 2022
Spectrum simulation attack (ECCV'2022 Oral) towards boosting the transferability of adversarial examples

Spectrum Simulation Attack (ECCV'2022 ORAL) This repository is the official Pytorch code implementation for our paper Frequency Domain Model Augmentat

Yuyang Long 31 Nov 23, 2022
[ICLR 2022] Accelerated Policy Learning with Parallel Differentiable Simulation

SHAC This repository contains the implementation for the paper Accelerated Policy Learning with Parallel Differentiable Simulation (ICLR 2022). In thi

NVIDIA Research Projects 148 Nov 17, 2022
📈 SiRE (Simulation-Informed Revenue Extrapolation with Confidence Estimate for Scaleup Companies Using Scarce Time-Series Data), accepted by CIKM'2022 🗽

Simulation-informed Revenue Extrapolation (SiRE) with confidence estimate for scaleup companies using scarce timeseries data. Overview • Usage • Examp

EQT 18 Nov 28, 2022
A Neural Operator-based Integrated Photonic Device Simulation Framework, NeurOLight NeurIPS 2022

NeurOLight By Jiaqi Gu, Zhengqi Gao, Chenghao Feng, Hanqing Zhu, Ray T. Chen, Duane S. Boning and David Z. Pan. This repo is the official implementati

Jiaqi Gu 13 Nov 16, 2022
A world simulation model that will be used to simulate the outcome of human actions on the world.

?? Goal - Build a World Simulation Model The goal of this project is to build a world simulation model that will be used to simulate the outcome of hu

Harshith Thota 3 Sep 22, 2022
Automated Trading Simulation with ARMA Model

This project utilizes the Auto regression moving average model and the twelve data API to simulate an automated trading system in nigh real-time

Chibueze Henry 2 Sep 18, 2022
A part of the Capstone project in Bootcamp Techainer 2022. This model is a transfer learning YOLOv7 model.

Food_Recognition A part of the Capstone project in Bootcamp Techainer 2022. This model is a transfer learning YOLOv7 model. Preparation To run it, you

Le Nho Bach 1 Nov 2, 2022
PSE Traffic Simulation Visualizer

PSE Traffic Simulation Visualizer Script to easily visualize traffic simulations (made for the PSE course) via plain text data output. Requirements Th

Jonathan 6 Mar 21, 2022
The Mock Market is a simulation of The U.S. Stock Market

Welcome to The Mock Market! This game is a simulation of The U.S. Stock Market. Please note that this is just a simulation and is in no way related to

null 1 Apr 16, 2022